Many are concerned that a deeply inverted yield curve signals a recession. When we look at the current yield curve, we see an opportunity to add exposure to fixed income. The most direct implication ...

One of the bond market’s most reliable indicators of impending U.S. recessions is pointed in a pretty pessimistic direction right now, but contains at least one optimistic message: The Federal Reserve ...

Later in this article, I will display a chart revealing a consistent pattern of when a recession is most likely to begin. From a trader's viewpoint, pattern recognition is essential for successful ...

An inverted yield curve, historically a precursor to economic downturns, suggests short-term borrowing costs for banks could soon outpace returns from long-term loans, squeezing profit margins, writes ...

After a little over two years, the yield curve is back to normal. That is to say, interest rates on longer-term bonds are once again higher than the interest rates of shorter-term bonds like two-year ...

The current bout of negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spreads will become the third longest once 221 consecutive trading days exhibit a red spread. Despite considerable movement on the very short end ...

Here at The Indicator we've been on recession watch ever since the yield curve inverted at the end of last year. For the uninitiated, the yield curve shows different interest rates on government bonds ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

The inverted yield curve has been one of the most reliable predictors of an imminent recession. An inversion of short and long-term bond yields has preceded every recession since World War II. But the ...

The yield curve on U.S. government bonds has been upside down since the middle of 2022. The underlying circumstances of the yield curve's inversion, however, have changed dramatically in just the past ...